Barack Obama’s campaign promised that his election would herald the return of American diplomacy a la John Quincy Adams. Adams is celebrated as one of our preeminent Secretary of State’s for his service during the James Monroe administration. During those years he negotiated the acquisition of Florida from Spain and the settlement of the southern border of the Louisiana Purchase territories. In retrospect it would seem obvious that the US would acquire Florida. But at the time, the fledgling United States scored a major upset by securing such concessions from the ancient imperial power of Spain.
While Adam’s tenure and that of other American statesmen’s accomplishments are remembered fondly as successes of diplomacy, there is far more to these events than just some diplomats talking other countries into bowing to our wishes.
The reason Adams was able to drive the hard bargain with Spain was because of the successes of the American military. Despite the overall fiasco that happened during the War of 1812, the final battle in New Orleans showed that American soldiers could handle the most elite infantry England could field. Despite the long grueling war, as soon as the fighting ended the American Navy was dispatched to the North African coast to finally put an end to the piracy problem plaguing American commerce, which was a successful projection of American power overseas. In North America, General Andrew Jackson had developed a personal desire to acquire Florida and had routinely sent his soldiers across the border to punish Indians, chase slaves and remind Spain how perilous its hold on Florida was.
Adams took advantage of Spain’s weakness in the face of American assertiveness and forced a deal that served our interests. Obama promoted himself as the alternative to George Bush’s more aggressive foreign policy, yet it is Bush’s policy that more closely hues to the style of our country’s most success diplomats. In order to negotiate, your opponent must believe that you will carry through on your threats and promises. Just as Adams could pressure Spain because of our military, Bush could pressure Iran and North Korea because he had proved he was willing to carry out his threats.
The cerebral Mr. Obama, on the other hand, has failed to deliver on his threats as well as his promises of goodwill. Across the world our allies’ interests have been sacrificed to appease their neighborhood aggressor. Even as Russia purposely defies Obama, Obama finds time to reprimand Israel. He should be lining our allies up for a united front against the naked aggression, instead he is engaging in more finger wagging and disapproval. It’s like the Dog Whisperer’s guide to foreign relations.
A friend of mine described Obama as bluffing with only seven and three in his hand, but I believe it’s worse than that. He has put his cards on the table for the world to see and then attempted to bluff his opponents. Obama has spent years downsizing the American military and avoiding any real decisions so it is only natural for Putin to call his bluff and go all in.
In response to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, Secretary of State John Kerry said this
“You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text,”
It is an endearing idea that we as a society have moved beyond warfare and it may seem like the 21st century is peaceful from Massachusetts or Washington. But what has changed in Russia or the Ukraine since the 19th century? Sure, they have tanks instead of horses, but on a basic level they are still living in the world that Napoleon called home. Brute force and violent manipulation has been a hallmark of Eastern Europe for centuries. It is naive to think that Twitter has changed any of that. In a world that lacks a super power, the next most powerful country will fill the void. Obama and Kerry may believe that they are too sophisticated to be involved in wars anymore, but our current situation calls for an Andrew Jackson style solution and instead our leaders are taking leadership lessons from James Buchanan.
The Obama era promised a relief from the cocky arrogance of George Bush, but in the end Obama has proved to be the most arrogant of the two. Bush knew that dictators will only be deterred by force or the honest threat of military action. Obama seems to believe that falling out of his favor is a strong enough deterrent.
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